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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Focusing on the Bottom (line) before Shaping the Top (line)

In the article "Post Office Looks to Scale Back" the WSJ reports that "...Faced with wide losses and a long slide in mail volume, the agency is considering eliminating Saturday deliveries and closing more post offices. The challenge will be getting consumers, unions and lawmakers, who have fought even small changes in mail delivery, to go along with the plan... The volume of first-class mail, the Postal Service's most-lucrative business, has been eroded by the migration of bill payments and individual correspondence to the Internet. The economic downturn has exacerbated the financial woes by hitting catalogs and other direct-marketing mailings. The Postal Service reported a nearly $2 billion loss for the second quarter ended March 31, with mail volume down nearly 15% from the year before. Postal officials predict it will handle about 180 billion pieces of mail this fiscal year, down by 32 billion pieces two years earlier..."
In the NYT article "Fares are Low, but Airlines Are Trying to End That" Mr. Sharkey writes that "Just over the horizon are fare increases, more capacity cuts and even various kinds of consolidation, including quasi-mergers between airlines on certain highly competitive international markets. These developing relationships, which allow partners to work closely to consolidate routes and fix fares, depend on exemptions from antitrust regulations. Delta and Air France-KLM, seeking to merge various routes between the United States and Europe, have received tentative approval from regulatory authorities in the United States, and are seeking approval from the European Union...The advantage to an airline is that “you’re not flying wing-to-wing across the Atlantic” with a competitor, Willie Walsh, the British Airways chief executive, told me recently. “You can offer a much better schedule, spread it out during the day and manage the capacity.” But the advantage to the passenger is nil, according to competitors like Richard Branson, the president of Virgin Atlantic, which competes aggressively on the United States-to-London routes. Mr. Branson said that the proposed new partnership between British Airways and American would “encourage even less competition by allowing dominant carriers to increase their stranglehold by setting prices together” and by coordinating schedules between the United States and London Heathrow Airport."
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The point that being struck home is that revenues are falling for these (and other) firms, and there is no significant pricing power. However, none of these articles talks about dramatically lowering operating expenses. A "salary and other expense" cut of 25% or so across the board will reduce the operating expenses and enable these carriers to turn a profit. But all employees need to understand that a significant wage cut is the only way out, as charging higher prices only continues the death spiral with lower usage followed by more capacity reductions. Flying, or chatting non-stop on a cell phone should be viewed as a luxury, not as a basic need.



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