Google

Saturday, May 09, 2009

Capital Friends in High Places...Jobless in Low Places

Wall Street has been moving up in recent weeks, confident that its allies will always come to its rescue, irrespective of the consequences for the general public. The latest data point comes from the reports in the press about Stephen Friedman, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who abruptly resigned on Thursday, days after questions arose about his ties to Goldman Sachs.

Mr. Friedman was chairman of the New York Fed at the same time that he was a member of Goldman’s board. He also had a substantial stake in the firm as the Fed was devising a solution to keep Wall Street banks afloat. Denis M. Hughes, deputy chairman of the board, will take over as the interim chairman, the New York Fed said in a statement. (Read Mr. Friedman’s letter after the jump.)

Because the New York Fed approved a request by Goldman to become a bank holding company, the chairman’s involvement in Goldman was a violation of Fed policy, The Wall Street Journal said in an article earlier this week.

The New York Fed asked for a waiver, which, after about two and a half months, the Fed granted, the newspaper said. During that time, Mr. Friedman bought 37,300 more Goldman shares in December, which have since risen $1.7 million in value.

*** Mr. Friedman, who enriched himself this way, has not given back the loot, but instead has claimed that “I followed the rules, as I always have.”***

WSJ has an interesting report on the 'stress test results' titled "Banks Won Concessions on Tests- Fed Cut Billions Off Some Initial Capital-Shortfall Estimates; Tempers Flare at Wells."

This piece makes for good reading.

***The Federal Reserve significantly scaled back the size of the capital hole facing some of the nation's biggest banks shortly before concluding its stress tests, following two weeks of intense bargaining.

In addition, according to bank and government officials, the Fed used a different measurement of bank-capital levels than analysts and investors had been expecting, resulting in much smaller capital deficits.

The overall reaction to the stress tests, announced Thursday, has been generally positive. But the haggling between the government and the banks shows the sometimes-tense nature of the negotiations that occurred before the final results were made public.

Government officials defended their handling of the stress tests, saying they were responsive to industry feedback while maintaining the tests' rigor.


When the Fed last month informed banks of its preliminary stress-test findings, executives at corporations including Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. were furious with what they viewed as the Fed's exaggerated capital holes. A senior executive at one bank fumed that the Fed's initial estimate was "mind-numbingly" large. Bank of America was "shocked" when it saw its initial figure, which was more than $50 billion, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.

At least half of the banks pushed back, according to people with direct knowledge of the process. Some argued the Fed was underestimating the banks' ability to cover anticipated losses with revenue growth and aggressive cost-cutting. Others urged regulators to give them more credit for pending transactions that would thicken their capital cushions.

At times, frustrations boiled over. Negotiations with Wells Fargo, where Chairman Richard Kovacevich had publicly derided the stress tests as "asinine," were particularly heated, according to people familiar with the matter. Government officials worried San Francisco-based Wells might file a lawsuit contesting the Fed's findings.

The Fed ultimately accepted some of the banks' pleas, but rejected others. Shortly before the test results were unveiled Thursday, the capital shortfalls at some banks shrank, in some cases dramatically, according to people familiar with the matter.

[fed changed estimates]

Bank of America's final gap was $33.9 billion, down from an earlier estimate of more than $50 billion, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.

A Bank of America spokesman wouldn't comment on how much the previous gap was reduced, though he said it resulted from an adjustment for first-quarter results and errors made by regulators in their analysis. "It wasn't lobbying," he said.

Wells Fargo's capital hole shrank to $13.7 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Before adjusting for first-quarter results and other factors, the figure was $17.3 billion, according to a federal document.

"In the end we agreed with the number. We didn't necessarily like the number," said Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Howard Atkins. He said the company was particularly unhappy with the Fed's assumptions about Wells Fargo's revenue outlook.

At Fifth Third Bancorp, the Fed was preparing to tell the Cincinnati-based bank to find $2.6 billion in capital, but the final tally dropped to $1.1 billion. Fifth Third said the decline stemmed in part from regulators giving it credit for selling a part of a business line.

Citigroup's capital shortfall was initially pegged at roughly $35 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. The ultimate number was $5.5 billion. Executives persuaded the Fed to include the future capital-boosting impacts of pending transactions.

SunTrust Banks Inc. also persuaded the Fed to significantly reduce the size of its estimated capital gap to $2.2 billion, after identifying mathematical errors in the Fed's earlier calculations, according to a person familiar with the matter.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc., saw a capital hole materialize at the last minute. As recently as Wednesday, PNC executives were under the impression they wouldn't need to find any new capital, according to people familiar with the matter. Thursday morning, the Fed informed PNC that it had a $600 million shortfall.

Regulators said other banks also were told they needed more capital than initially projected.

The Fed's findings were less severe than some experts had been bracing for. A weeklong rally in bank stocks continued Friday, with the KBW Bank Stocks index surging 10%. Investors were especially relieved by the relatively small capital holes at regional banks. Shares of Fifth Third soared 59%, while Regions Financial Corp.'s $2.5 billion deficit led to a 25% leap in its stock.

With the stress tests, government officials were walking a fine line. If the regulators were too tough on banks, they risked angering their constituents and spooking markets. But if they were too soft, the tests could have lost credibility, defeating their basic confidence-building purpose.

[Chart]

All the back-and-forth is typical of the way regulators traditionally wrap up their examinations of banks: Regulators often present preliminary findings to lenders and then give them time to respond. The process can result in changes to the regulators' initial conclusions. Some of the stress-test revisions, for instance, were made to account for the beneficial impact of the industry's strong first-quarter profits.

On Friday, some analysts questioned the yardstick, known as Tier 1 common capital, that regulators chose to assess capital levels. Many experts had assumed the Fed would use a better-known metric called tangible common equity.

According to Gerard Cassidy, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, the 19 banks' cumulative shortfall would have been more than $68 billion deeper if the government had used the latter metric, which accounts for unrealized losses....

Friday, May 08, 2009

Calling out and Touching Someone....on Craigslist

Craigslist is making the news for its "erotic services." The latest story, as reported by Newsday-
"Suffolk police have arrested a Hauppauge woman they say harassed her neighbor and possibly the neighbor's 9-year-old daughter by posting a sexually suggestive ad on Craigslist and directing nearly two dozen calls from men seeking sex to the neighbor's home phone number...."

According to Cyrus Farivar, Macworld.com, "Starting this fall, journalism students at the University of Missouri, Columbia will need to add an iPhone or an iPod touch to their shopping carts. Before you protest that it may seem ridiculous, lavish, or favoring Apple to force students to pick up one of these expensive pieces of hardware, Brian Brooks, associate dean of the journalism school, told the Columbia Missourian that the requirement "will not be enforced, however, and there will not be a penalty for students who chose not to buy an iPod touch or iPhone." So why require it? Brooks said that it'll helps students review recorded lectures, but the real reason for "requiring" the purchase is for the benefit of students on financial aid. He told the paper: The reason we put required on it is to help the students on financial need. If it's required, it can be included in your financial need estimate. If we had not required it, they wouldn't be able to do that..."

Thursday, May 07, 2009

The bogus science behind the claims

Currently the markets are rallying amid the claims by the clowns that the economy has hit bottom and is now on the upswing. In a classic situation of the tail wagging the dog, these prognosticators point to the stock market as a leading indicator.
Lower mortgage rates are enabling people to refinance and that may prop up spending a little, but it is the employment picture that should be the driver. Currently it is as bleak as it has been. It is hard to get even unpaid internships for students.
It is rather sad to see young, talented, positively driven graduates running head-on into this massive tsunami.

DeadHeads still alive

The other day one of my students attended the Grateful Dead concert, albeit a Garcia-less Dead performance. I was surprised that the current generation has elements that like the Dead.

Yesterday, in my marketing class, I happened to mention Billy Joel in the context of work ethic, and sure enough, one student happened to like his music. There is no accounting for the retro tastes of the kids.


**Someone who sent me a comment anonymously , did not get the gist of my piece.  I am a BIG FAN of the Grateful Dead and Billy Joel, and love their music. I find it interesting that some of today's students enjoy those tunes- that is the point of the article. So yes, I do like the tastes of the current generation!**