No raining on this drought

The Hindu : News / National : Are man-made factors behind erratic monsoon?: "India is heading for a drought, in meteorological terms, for the fourth time in the past 11 years. The previous droughts during this period were in 2002, 2004 and 2009.

A meteorological drought, in the sense that atmospheric scientists typically use the term, occurs when a monsoon ends with nationwide rainfall during the season falling below 90 per cent of the long-term average.

Such a string of droughts is not unprecedented. However, scientists have noticed some worrisome features in the monsoon in recent years. The question, inevitably, is whether human-induced factors driving climate change are involved, and whether they could affect rain in the coming years too.

There were five droughts between 1965 and 1975, and five more between 1979 and 1989, points out J. Srinivasan, who heads the Divecha Centre for Climate Change at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore. However, during the periods of 1965-1975 and 1979-1989, there were two ‘excess’ monsoon years when the nationwide rainfall quantum exceeded 110 per cent of the long-term average.

But there has not been a single excess-monsoon year since 1994. "

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