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Sunday, August 03, 2008

Globalization 3.0, or "Glocal" Choices

The NYT has interesting article today titled "Shipping Costs Start to Crimp Globalization."

Thomas Friedman's notion of "The World is Flat" still holds true at the big macro level, but the rise in transportation costs creates a few hills and potholes in this flat world.
If one assumes that oil prices stay north of $100 per barrel for the next five years, supply chains for physical goods might be reconfigured to a more 'regionalized' system, as the NYT article points out. But this relates to component makers and the final assemblers being located closely, aka the 'neighborhood' effect. Eventually the component makers further up the supply chain have to get the raw material commodities from resource-rich countries- Brazil and Australia for iron ore, for example.
Electronic goods will continue to be manufactured in Asia, primarily China, precisely because of the neighborhood effect. Cost of components constitutes 60% or more of the "cost of goods sold" for electronics items. Further electronic items usually have high value but have low weight and low volume, therefore transportation cost as a % of cost of goods sold is less.. Appliances and consumer durables for the Asian and Central/South American markets will be assembled in those markets. Consumer packaged goods will continue to be made domestically in each region of the world, though the ingredients would come from around the world. Services will continue to be outsourced from developed markets to emerging markets as the impact of transportation costs is much less in services delivery.
In summary, one should not expect a significant return of manufacturing to the U.S. because of the increase in energy prices. Outsourcing of services will continue. What one can expect is a rise in prices across the board. All goods and services will effectively cost more to the consumer, the government's CPI fudging notwithstanding.

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