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Sunday, June 29, 2008

War on Wages-Driving Teenagers Change

Natalie Merchant and 10,000 Maniacs were on the money in more ways than one when they sang
"these are days you'll remember
never before and never since, I promise
will the whole world be warm as this
and as you feel it, you'll know it's true..."

Though the album "Our Time in Eden" came out in 1992, the song exemplifies the glory days of the late 1990s. Some memories:

  • Flying was FUN. I used to fly between ORD and San Jose (or San Francisco) every week for a long time, and it was enjoyable. Good food, friendly service, low fares, and a decent on-time arrival record.
  • Bay area companies were offering perks like a new BMW to get people to join them.
  • Decent wage increases, often exceeding 3%
  • Regular bonuses
  • Decent amount of snow in Chicago (thought the song is about warmth..)
Ironically, part of the song is applicable for today's environment as well. We will certainly remember these days and the 2007-2008 years as a period of momentous change.
  • Minimal to no wage growth
  • Dramatic surge in retail gasoline prices
  • Food prices on a stomach-churning climb
  • Continuing rise in health care expenses
  • Housing related problems
and many others.

An interesting article in the NYT, 'As Gas Prices Rise, Teenagers’ Cruising Declines' describes the changes in teenagers' activities because of high fuel prices. It appears as though no one in the past asked why anyone should cruise aimlessly wasting resources, as a 'rite of passage.' If the teenagers' parents and their predecessors had thought about the resources they were consuming when they were young, perhaps we would not be in the current oily mess.

Mr. Ben Stein, in his piece 'Why Oil and Wages Don’t Mix' in the NYT, describes the decline in average hourly wages for nongovernmental workers since 1994. He concludes with "Meanwhile, it’s all a bit discouraging — especially the trend for wages. But we will get through it, just as we get through everything else, one adaptive, smart American at a time."

The key is in figuring out what "getting through it" means, and how it is tied to "smartness."
I am rather pessimistic on this issue, because the public at large and the people in the media do not exhibit curiosity and ask questions- real questions, of our leaders in the pursuit of the elusive truth. When this changes and the public forces activities like the Fed bailouts of corporate chieftains and government bailouts of "not smart" mortgage holders to stop, I will turn optimistic.

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