Sliding into the Future

Oh baby baby it's a wild world,
it's hard to get by just upon a smile.
..............Cat Stevens

How many roads must a man walk down
Before you call him a man?
Yes, 'n' how many seas must a white dove sail
Before she sleeps in the sand?
Yes, 'n' how many times must the cannon balls fly
Before they're forever banned?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.
.........Bob Dylan

As one looks back over the past seven years there is plenty of evidence that suggests that the Internet bust, 9/11, the subsequent technological, financial and military developments have, in the language of Intel's Andy Grove, created an inflection point. This piece will take a stab at laying out the landscape for the next decade or two, especially from a US perspective. The rationale will be developed in subsequent pieces.

The forecast. (CAUTION: the reliability or the error rate is about the same as that of your local weatherman or weatherwoman).

#1. The median standard of living of living in the United States will come down 'substantially.'
#2. The role of the US as the world's police force will diminish.
#3. Real Inflation, not the bogus ones reported by governments, will go up substantially.
#4. Significant new business models will come from other countries, along with new managerial systems.

While some of these changes have been going on for the past few years, this blog will examine the pace of change and what factors drive it.