History of an "Ownership Society"

A few weeks ago, a student in my class commented that all the history courses she took were very limited because they all seemed to end with World War II or earlier. Other students chimed in- it appeared that stuff that happened in the recent past was of no historical relevance. As this was in my business course, I decided to give them a ten minute education on recent history related to the economy- the past fifteen years.

• 1992-1993 Beginning of the widespread use of the browser- we really need to thank Marc Andreessen and his buddies at U of I for making this blog and everything else on the Internet accessible so easily.
• 1992-2000 Massive (over) investments in technologies, esp. Communications, and Finance. This can be looked at as pulling future investment 'into' the present, thus forcing reduced investment in the future (reversion to the mean effect).
• 2001-2002 Reality check. Dawned on investors that some investments made above will never pay off, and some would take many years. Collapse of investment.
  9/11- collapse of travel.
  Recession.
  Job Losses, especially the higher paying high tech ones.
  Outsourcing of tech (part of the payoff from capital investments in 1992-2000).
  
• 2003 - 2Q 2007: President George Bush's two part response- Iraq War and Create an 'Ownership' Society.
  Shift the gains from wage earners to 'owner-investors.'
  Fed Chair Greenspan responds by lowering interest rates to 1% in July 2003. Became very cheap to borrow money, both for individuals and institutions.
  Reduced regulatory environment and lax enforcement made it very easy to borrow and lend money.
  Tax code changed to significantly benefit investors and owners- shifting the burden to wage-earners.
  Tougher bankruptcy laws made it more favorable for lendors.
  Massive borrowing to finance housing and other needs, as opposed to funding from savings.
  Spawns asset bubbles- Housing Bubble, Real Estate bubble, Stock Market Bubble, Commodities bubble, etc.
  Lower interest rates, with higher global demand, spawns inflation
  
• 2005-2007 Fed responds by raising rates trying to lower inflation
• 1Q 2007-3Q 2007 Cheap money not available. Borrowing to finance spending becomes difficult.
  Job Losses
• 3Q 2007 to present. Fed dramatically lowers rates and puts in other extra-ordinary measures to make it easier to 'borrow.'
  Assets being repriced.
  Ownership (that arose from borrowing) being reduced.
  

Next step is to take a stab at the future- that's for another blog.

The Roof Caves In

Back on July 19, 2005, in an article titled 'Assessing the Demand for Residential Real Estate' I had written "The expectation with the housing market now is quite different. Despite the new bankruptcy law that makes filing Chapter 7 more difficult, house buyers are purchasing financial products with greater risk on the downside. Investors are pouring more money into the homebuilders and the lenders. Part of the bet is that with the scale of liabilities of the mortgage industry, especially the GSEs, the Fed and the government will bail out the financial sector from any disasters, shifting the burden to the public. As alluded to by others, ‘character’ is being tested- that of buyers, lenders, builders, investors, and the public at large."

The recent 'bailout' of Bear Stearns and other Wall Street banks by the Federal Reserve and the Government is precisely what I expected. While the Fed and the Government are grossly shifting the burden to the public, there is no public outcry at the gross injustice. In a subsequent post I will examine how much loot the executives of the big banks and the investors stashed away while betting safely that the government was going to bail 'em out.